Does the volatility of the Labour Force Survey render it useless as a leading indicator? (September 19)
The recent sharp decline of 52,000 jobs in the Canadian Economy (Labour Force Survey of Canada, August 2018, raises questions about how to interpret such changes. Some commentators see the LFS as volatile and advise against reading too much into month-to-month changes. This is conventional counsel, but does this variability render it less useful as a leading indicator? Has the volatility of this economic benchmark increased? Can we process the information from the survey to offer more insight into the near-term economic prospects? And, what change in level of September employment (scheduled for early October 2018) should prompt concern that the economy is in danger?