Some problems with “evidence based” policy
One of the effects of COVID, is the ubiquity of evidence-based policy. Aside from coronavirus cranks, most accept that public health directives rest on science.
However, evidence can be a cudgel when used to promote a specific policy and limit discussion under the assertion that “the science is settled.” This seems to have happened with Biden’s proposing to raise the Federal minimum wage and Paul Krugman of the New York Times claiming that “new evidence came in, and it refuted old conventional wisdom.”
Vaccine plan in peril as third wave looms
A week before New Year’s Eve, I started to receive promotional material from restaurants, my gym and arts groups, gushing about how 2021 will be different. Life will be good again, and 2020 will be but a dream.
That was then; this is now. The vaccine rollout has gone poorly, in Manitoba and elsewhere in North America. Compared to the U.K. and especially Israel, Canada’s paltry vaccination rate is embarrassing.
Economic principles apply to the pandemic
Two weeks before Christmas, as a gift I needed to wrap and send a wooden kit for my nephew. Of course, the kit did not include the required glue … that was customer-supplied. No worries, I thought, I would just pick some up at the supermarket on my next grocery run; after all, it had a small home-improvement section and I recalled seeing glue there.
The moral hazard of public health measures
Ten years ago, I purchased as SUV, with “state-of-the-art” all wheel drive, at least according to the sales person, who stated “you will not need snow tires with this baby!” And indeed, the traction was impressive. But after the first snow, I took a corner too fast and slammed into the curb bending the wheel and ruining the tire. Chagrined, I had the wheel repaired and purchased snow tires. On the way home, I marvelled at the improved handling provided by the all-wheel-drive and new snow tires … my speed increased. Then on the same corner as before, I came within centimeters of repeating my earlier folly. The false security offered by the snow tires and the all wheel drive, had induced me to change my driving behaviour and eliminate the benefit of both these safety measures.
Living with COVID requires choices
In early April, we had about 100 active cases of COVID-19 in Manitoba, and the city was a ghost town. Today, we have more than 350 active cases and Kenaston Boulevard is a traffic jam. What gives?
The push to open in the economy in Manitoba and elsewhere in spite of “upticks” in COVID-19 cases reflects the belief that a tradeoff exists between health and economics. According to this view, you can have health or you can have wealth, but not both — and right now many are seeming to say, “we choose wealth.”
Virtual care will revolutionize Canadian health care
The forced adoption of virtual health care caused by the pandemic has most observers extolling the value of patient-provider consultations via real-time streaming platforms. Not many seem to recognize several other trends that will disrupt Canadian health care. Combined with telehealth, wearable diagnostics, artificial intelligence-enabled decisions, cloud storage, and strategic alignments among internet giants and health centres, virtual care could revolutionize Canadian health care by 2030.
Canada needs a pandemic DEW Line
Public health experts and politicians are suggesting that we can see a point when pandemic-related restrictions could relax. But any relaxation must be careful and measured, quickly reversible if COVID-19 reappears.
Everyone maintains that wide-scale testing is a key to controlling the reopening of the economy.
Time to put the Economy on COVID-19 pause
COVID-19 is simultaneously a health and economic crisis. If we do not flatten the curve, or if a second wave of illness emerges as social distancing eases, disease impacts may well extend into the summer and even further into the fall, with a possible repeat cycle starting by December.
Reconciliation starts with the land
The current blockades are the latest development in a land-surrender process that started in the 17th century. The first commercial compacts between the European settlers and Indigenous peoples of North America presented the two parties with challenges in understanding each other’s world views on land title. This challenge persists to this day in resolving the Wet’suwet’en claims.
Nuclear energy must be part of the climate-crisis solution
(with J. Borsa)
The recent false alarm at the Pickering nuclear power plant highlights the mythologies and heightened perceptions of risk with nuclear power. The anti-nuke activists have created deep misunderstanding about nuclear power that undermines climate change action.
A watershed moment of awareness occurred in my early university years when I learned that very few problems have a magic-bullet solution. In fact, most challenges we confront are, to use C. George Churchman’s phrase, “wicked problems.”
Economic illusions of the federal election
As an economist, I approached voting in the Canadian federal election with deep ambivalence that was shared by most everyone I know regardless of vocation or political persuasion.
Most expressed resignation and stated, with a sigh, that: “X is at least better than the alternatives,” or “I don’t want X to win, so am voting for Y.” I too fell into that ditch of despair, but then remembered a strategy from my anarcho-syndicalist days of my early 20’s.
Politicians must stop trying to buy us off with our own money
As Larry the Liquidator said in that not-so-classic film Other People’s Money: “I love money more than the things it can buy … but what I love more than money is other people’s money.”
With the federal election soon upon us, it’s time to issue a call for politicians to stop buying us off with our own money.
International collaboration spurs technology and the economy
Ottawa has just invested $30 million in food processing innovation as part of the $1 billion directed to five innovation clusters. Proponents of this collaboration of Prairie industry, universities, and government believe that “this super-cluster will make Canada a leading source for plant proteins and, ultimately, feed the world.”
Will such collaboration work, without great scientists/innovators/entrepreneurs leading the work?
Read the full article
Is it always better to be safe than sorry?
Often when some natural disaster has occurred or a public health challenge emerges, we hear leaders exercising “an abundance of caution” when adopting a conservative strategy. An example was the boil water advisory issued in Winnipeg during 2016 in in response to very low levels of E.coli in a few water samples. And is it not always better to be safe than sorry?
Well, no, at least not always. In fact, playing it safe has a lot to do with the difficulties our farmers face in exporting Canola.
Let’s start at the beginning. Termed the precautionary principle, playing it safe and not being sorry has become a centrepiece of environmental law.
An economic path forward for First Nations
After reading the final report of the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Women and Girls, I had two reactions.
First, a deep sadness at how Canada, and I mean all of us, have failed these women and their families. The layer upon layer of pain from the detailed testimony is numbing and sobering.
But then I felt frustration. After three major inquiries , the Aboriginal Justice Inquiry, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and now MMIWG, progress toward restitution and resolution is glacially slow.
Structural poverty is a common denominator for many of the problems highlighted in the various reports. Policies to improve the economic circumstances of Indigenous people in Canada should be a priority. Yet as an economist, it’s puzzling to me that none of these three important inquiries offer much useful advice on how Indigenous communities and persons can gain wealth and income.
Preserving the old not always sensible
Once again, we see plucky “neighbourhood activists” standing up against a “multimillionaire” developer. These activists no doubt celebrate the 11th-hour decision by Winnipeg’s director of planning, property and development to issue an emergency order to nominate “the Crescentwood neighbourhood as a historical conservation district.” The mansion at 514 Wellington Cres., reputedly the former home of many of our most prominent citizens, is now safe from the wrecking ball, at least for the moment.
However, this decision is wrong on many levels.
Anti-vaxxers miscalculate risk assessment
The current outbreak of measles has startled public health practitioners, who declared measles controlled over two decades ago. We are now grappling with a low-level epidemic that may become endemic. Health professionals, armed with the science to back up vaccination, strongly disapprove of parents who do not vaccinate their children. They characterise objections to vaccines as ignorant and irresponsible.
I am an economist and the anti-vaxx movement makes me think of how a risk analysis could offer insight into the anti-vaccination decision of some parents.
Kapyong offers challenging opportunity
Over the past 20 years, the courts have validated long-standing claims by First Nations that Canadian governments have systematically ignored and violated the terms of treaties negotiated between 1871 and 1921.
One approach to mitigating treaty violations is the additions-to-reserve process. In short, First Nations purchase land from a private owner and apply to transfer it to their reserves. Government helps in the process. Under the Treaty Land Entitlement process, Manitoba has also set aside $190 million to assist First Nations to acquire private land for the purpose of adding to their reserves.
Economic lessons from the SNC-Lavalin fiasco
I will leave it to those more ethically evolved and politically astute than me to comment on the hapless performance of the prime minister in managing the SNC-Lavalin fiasco. I do feel certain that Trudeau the Elder may have simply arched an eyebrow and dismissed the entire affair with the greatest of ease. Trudeau the Lesser has demonstrated that while the apple may not fall far from the tree, sometimes it bounces downhill and away.
Time to eliminate tax break for charitable donations
My smartphone is finally cooling off. It all started three weeks before Black Friday, in late November. Because I make most of my charitable contributions through a website, I need to offer my email address to receive a tax receipt. This has led to a proliferation of retailers and charitable organizations alike seeing me as fair game.
It’s a wonderful economic life lesson
Truth be told, I could never sit through the perennial holiday “classic” It’s a Wonderful Life. Many people make an annual ritual of watching this movie, but I always thought the story schlocky and Jimmy Stewart’s performance overwrought.
I recently changed my view when I saw a theatrical version of the story told in the 1946 Frank Capra movie. At the Royal Manitoba Theatre Centre’s production of It’s a Wonderful Life: The Radio Play, audience members became viewers at a traditional live radio show, set in the early 1950s, with the actors playing multiple roles in front of microphones, lighted signs to cue applause and a Foley artist creating scene-appropriate sound effects. This stage production encouraged me to view the movie through new eyes and I realized it contained several economic insights.
In defence of Stats Can’s financial-data request
Statistics Canada’s proposal to collect a range of detailed financial data from 500,000 Canadians has certainly touched a nerve.
Many commentators argue this invades privacy and is overreach, while only a few brave pundits defend the plan. The tide of public opinion has turned and our system of official statistics is under serious threat. Three questions need answering.
- First, why does Statistics Canada need financial transactions data?
- Second, how does direct access to financial records make official statistics more reliable and efficient?
- Third, are the financial data that Statistics Canada wishes to access all that different from the information already shared by the financial industry?
We dodged Amazon’s ransom bullet
Last year, Amazon dangled its new headquarters like a shimmering lure, and politicians everywhere rose like suckers to the bait. Winnipeg and many other cities assembled teams to polish their images as business-friendly locales with trained workforces and favourable tax environments — no doubt, we also noted our central location.
Setting aside the fact that if one rotates a globe while holding it in two hands, any place can be centrally located, the stampede to entice Amazon to locate in any specific city wastes tax resources and is quite unseemly.
Unintended effects of equal-pay laws
Popular culture represents King Canute as a foolish monarch who ordered his aides to place his chair by the ocean’s edge, whereupon he commanded the tide to stop. Of course, he got his feet wet.
Ontario’s basic income pilot had serious flaws
Social and anti-poverty activists have greeted the dumping of Ontario’s basic income pilot project with the usual lamentations. These critics of the new Conservative government argue the funds allocated to the project is a pittance compared to the costs of poverty, and we have missed out on learning about the impact of a basic income.
I disagree. The pilot needed to stop. As someone who consulted on the project, I believe it had core design flaws that mitigated against ever answering questions about basic income.
Government should be careful with transit
The demise of the Churchill railroad and the announced departure of Greyhound from major Prairie routes has constrained travel options for many rural residents. Predictably, calls have gone out for the federal and provincial governments to step in. Some even suggest nationalization of intercity bus transit and outright purchase of the Churchill rail operation.
So, what should the government do?
Free trade the lifeblood of our economy
If we ever needed a lesson on the value of free trade to Manitoba, the sale of 10 electric buses to Toronto by New Flyer should nail it. This single transaction shows how open borders create benefits in multiple dimensions.
Politics are polluting the environment
I was fuelling my sensible SUV this morning, while furtively admiring an adjacent monster pickup truck. When asked, the owner gushed about how she liked the oversized vehicle, praising “sight lines” while almost apologizing for the cost of a fill-up and the obvious waste implied by her vehicle choice.
Urban reserves a tool to build Indigenous prosperity
Can urban reserves support Indigenous economic development?
Society is awash in ignorance, misinformation
This article is GMO-free and gluten-friendly. Read it and your health will improve.
Brave new world of digital currency
I just purchased some cryptocurrency, but hush… don’t tell my financial advisor. Money managers over the age of 50 think Bitcoin and see Dracula, then start reaching for the garlic wreath and silver cross. Financial pundits under 30 either shrug and wonder why the fuss, or gush with enthusiasm.
To explain cryptocurrency, let’s start with the ideas of currency and money.
A handful of tax resolutions for the new year
So, what would an ideal tax system look like? Here is my personal wish list for the new year.
Tax code simplification necessary, long overdue
I have three reactions to the announcement that government will tax marijuana. As a so-called child of the ’60s, I am unimpressed. As an economist, I know that pot will have an inelastic demand and will be a good revenue boost for government. As a political cynic, I can only shrug.
Health reform lacks objective assessment
One would never start a weight-loss program without stepping on a scale, first to set a baseline and then to monitor progress with regular weigh-ins. Options to staring down at hard reality between your toes are to wear black, suck in your gut or choose friends who assert you are losing weight.
Flu vaccine has economic benefits
Most of us see vaccination solely as a health issue. However, vaccination to prevent disease has major economic benefits.
Time and information guide Economic Decisions
Time and information are two sides of the same coin when it comes to the economy.
I often drive with the majority shareholder in my household. Many of these trips entail searching for a parking spot by our destination. Now, I am a “close enough” kind of guy; the other shareholder in our household is a “nothing but the closest” type of person.
Raising minimum wage won’t fight poverty
It is construction season in this city and, while idling with hundreds of other drivers, I wondered what economic lessons we can learn from gridlock.
Curing the ‘cost disease’ in health care
Hip replacements have experienced rapid technological advancement. Surgeons predict that within the next few years, some patients may be treated on an outpatient basis — in at 8 a.m., out in the evening. The surgical procedure, actual replacement unit and improved rehabilitation have combined to restore function quickly.
Health costs rise as tech prices plummet — but why? (Part 1)
I have just had my hip replaced, one of approximately 1,500 similar procedures to be performed in Manitoba this year. Aside from the nervousness I experienced since my hips are close to where I normally keep my brains, the experience afforded me an opportunity to reflect on the state of health-care costs.
Mad Cow disease holds surprising lessons
The BSE crisis teaches us lessons to this day.
For most of us, the year 2003 is of no importance. However, an event occurred then that holds useful lessons in the current political and economic environment.
Private MRIs won’t endanger health care
What do pizza joints and MRIs have in common?
The economy of useless things
The robots are coming! The robots are coming! Many social commentators raise alarms about impending technology induced job losses. The vision is dire — professional jobs in accountancy, law and medicine are all on the chopping block in the face of technical change that threatens to turn humanity into couch potatoes on minimum income, binge watching streaming TV.
This dystopian view is unlikely. Two changes will rescue us: the economy of useless things and how we define work.
Structural approach needed for budgets
This is the season for taxes and brave promises. Taxes are inevitable, but is it not time to ask our finance ministers to stop spinning fairy tales?
On the left hand, many see government spending as good and taxes as financing the “essential” services of the modern public sector. On the other hand, those on the right advocate for reduced services and taxes, resulting in a dynamic economy that floats all boats and trickles in all directions.
These notions are simplistic bunk, as is balanced-budget legislation…
Basic income, child benefits best bet to reduce poverty
Poverty — especially child poverty — is pernicious. The latest research reported in Scientific American shows children born into low-income situations experience a range of intellectual deficits compared to their counterparts raised in homes at a higher socioeconomic status (SES).
Poverty is also persistent. Children born to a low-SES family start the foot race of life several metres behind the pack and with ankle weights. They are less likely to reach higher incomes and will likely have children born in a low-SES environment. The cycle perpetuates.
Revisiting Manitoba’s basic-income experiment
There seems to be a persistent misunderstanding and mythology surrounding the Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment — or Mincome, as it came to be known. With the recent publication of a working paper on the Ontario Basic Annual Income and the universal basic income experiment about to begin in Finland, it is time to review Manitoba’s experience with a basic income, also known as a guaranteed annual income.
University teaching methods mired in the past
With the cessation of the recent labour action by the University of Manitoba Faculty Association, it is an opportune time to reflect on why the strike occurred.
It is tempting to see this issue in classic Marxist terms, where the workers (faculty with salaries ranging from $75,000 to $140,000 per year) defend their rights against administrators who have been captured by a corporate agenda. Equally, one can view it as an administration holding the line, in the face of revenue constraint and enrolment increases, while confronted by a faculty that seeks undue control.
Some truth exists in both views, but not a lot. More profound are two disruptions that have fundamentally changed the nature of post-secondary education in Canada: technology and globalization.
Forget rights, focus on obligations
Whenever I go for a walk, my feet each claim credit for any forward momentum. My right foot says it has all the initiative and is the real driver for my progress. It sometimes complains that my left foot just tags along, not doing the heavy lifting.
My left foot replies that it plans where we should go and without its direction the right foot would carry me off randomly. My left foot also seems to care about the welfare of my right foot. My right foot is self-interested.
Rescuing economy requires risk, individual responsibility
So much gnashing of teeth has occurred in the last week as almost every pundit pours over survey data trying to understand what happened on November 8. Social commentators and other shamans sift through the entrails of our culture trying to make sense of the unthinkable election. Half of North America seems to be in grief counselling.
The answer is much easier to understand, and thankfully economics offers some insight.
Political boundaries make little sense
I enjoy driving to Saskatchewan. As I pass Virden, I do not need the sign welcoming me to Saskatchewan to know I am in another province. No, I can tell by the quaint provincial costumes that so uniquely mark the provinces of Canada. The purple hats and the lime green leggings of Saskatchewan men are a sure tip-off that I am in a different place.
This is silly of course, but the existence of provinces demanding that they have a “made in Saskatchewan energy policy” or a “made in Nova Scotia health policy” underscores the arbitrary nature of political and administrative divisions in delivering public policy for a federal state such as Canada. In most cases the boundaries we use to deliver public policy make little sense, do not align with unique needs of the population, and add administrative cost with little commensurate value.
Affirmative action beneficial, but also risky
Affirmative action to revise outcomes is a bad idea. There… I have said the unthinkable. Now before my friends and colleagues strike me off their invitation lists and my inbox groans under the weight of inbound indignation, I need to explain myself.
Governments must make more prudent investments
When politicians debate whether deficits are needed for economic stimulus, the entire discussion is pointless. It’s not the deficit that matters, it’s how it is spent.
Imagine your household were a break-even operation — your income covers food, utilities, entertainment, home and transportation costs. Now you decide to go to the bank and take out a loan for additional education. You have a debt, which puts your household budget into a deficit.
Impartial data essential for economy, democracy
The news Wayne Smith, the chief statistician of Canada, has resigned should worry us. He is the second chief statistician to resign in six years. After serving just two years, Munir Sheikh resigned in 2010, in objection to replacement of the long-form census with a voluntary survey. Prior to that, Ivan Fellegi had served in that position for 23 years.
Why should you and I care about the comings and goings of senior civil servants? What do dull, dry data matter to the ordinary Canadian?
Playing nice won’t work in negotiating trade deals
What do canola and students have in common?
If you had answered “China,” go to the head of the class. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has returned from his latest charm offensive with the hope that Canada has worked out a firm deal on canola exports to China. Farmers can breathe a sigh of relief… or can they?
It’s time to implement a national gas tax
According to opinion polls, Canadians are accepting the idea that humans are changing the climate. While our readiness to undertake major lifestyle changes remains uncertain, the political rhetoric is also warming. The provincial premiers and the prime minister tout their favourite magic-bullet remedies for climate change.
Social licence for mega-projects must include all stakeholders
The extended controversy over the proposed Energy East pipeline reveals fatal flaws in how we collectively decide on the benefits and costs of resource mega-projects.
With the collapse of oil prices, Canadians can see how natural resources support our standard of living. Recent estimates from Statistics Canada suggest this sector underpins 20 per cent of the country’s GDP and 1.8 million jobs, most of which link to export markets.
Press pause on rapid transit plan
The current imbroglio between the City of Winnipeg and Manitoba Hydro is creating, in the minds of some, a reason for halting the development of the next phase of Winnipeg’s rapid transit plan. However, this is a minor cost — a drop in the bucket of the projected $500-million-plus expenditure for the extension.
Still, there are two fundamental reasons for pausing our transit plans. These are tactical and strategic.
Census survey a quaint way to collect data
Census season is upon us. I just received my invitation in the mail to go online and complete the questionnaire. Bold letters informed me to complete the census — “it’s the law.” The census remains the backbone of Canada’s official statistics.
However, change is sweeping across the world of official statistics. Collecting census data will soon experience fundamental revision, supported by big data, the “Internet of things,” and an evolving sensibility of privacy by Canadians.
Guaranteed annual income difficult to implement
The guaranteed annual income (GAI) has been touted as an antidote to poverty and inequality. Initiated in the mid-1950s as the negative income tax proposed by Milton Friedman and subject to major experimental studies in the ’60s and ’70s, why does this idea periodically rise, only to fade from public discussion?